I had a bunch of stuff queued up (in my brain) to put up here, but laziness took hold. However now I have something that’s really eating away at me and it’s sort of screenplay related, but… well it fits in with the theme anyway.
I’m reading the book Ready Player One. Not because I think it’s good, but because I decided to go back and read along with the earliest episodes of the podcast “372 Pages We’ll Never Get Back“. I read along with TekWar (their previous book) and it was marvelous, so I thought I would get maximum enjoyment by going back and doing the same for Ready Player One. I will have more thoughts on this book later. It’s complete and utter garbage, but I want to point out something ludicrous.
At one point Marty Sue… sorry, Wade… uploads 10 Zetabytes of data (from a portable device) in 3 hours. Shall we do some math on that?
Data Size
Data goes like this: B (Byte), KB, MB, GB, TB, PB, EB, ZB (Zetabyte). Each increment is 1024 times as big as the previous.
So 1 Gigabyte is 1024 Megabytes is 1,048,576 Kilobytes is 1,073,741,824 Bytes
1 ZB is 1024 to the 7th power bytes. 1.1 Sextillion bytes.
An average Bluray is 25 GB. That external backup drive you bought from Wal-Mart is probably in the 4 TB range at most.
10 ZB can hold almost 440 billion Bluray discs or 2 billion of those backup drives you bought from Wal-Mart.
The book takes place in 2044 (a scant 33 years after it was written). In the 33 years prior to 2011 disk space had grown quite a lot. Home computers, what few existed, didn’t even come with hard disks at that time. And the earliest consumer hard disks were in the 5 MB range. By 2011 an upper end consumer physical hard disk (SSDs are another matter) was in the 1 TB range. This is a 210,000 times increase.
Extrapolating that out over the next 33 years would see an average consumer drive storage be somewhere in the 200 PB (Petabyte) range… not Zetabyte, not Exabyte… Petabyte.
Also, let’s not forget that in between 2011 and 2044 global warming and rampant capitalism resulted in a Mad Max type apocalypse taking place. But still we managed to improve on our pocket drive storage billions of times over?
Transfer Rate
To understand transfer speeds in a way that is relevant to your home internet connection we need to convert from bytes to bits (the 1s and 0s). This is simple. There are 8 bits in a byte.
10 ZB is 94 Sextillion bits. (94,447,329,657,392,900,000,000 if you’re interested in the actual number)
Internet speed is typically measured in seconds: 25 Mbps (Mega bits per second), 50 Mbps, 100 Mbps, etc.
Go to https://www.speedtest.net/ and check out your own internet speed. I’ll wait…
My download is 180 Mbps. Upload is much slower, 11 Mbps. This is my internet provider’s method to stop me from running a server out of my house. You can pay more for a faster upload, but I digress.
So how fast is 10 ZB in 3 hours?
Well, we just need to divide 94 Sextillion by 10800 (3 hours in seconds) to get the average bits per second:
8.7 Quintillion bits per second. To put that into your home internet terms it’s 8.7 Trillion Mbps. Or roughly 48 million times faster than my home internet download speed.
To put that in a more manageable number: 8.75 Ebps (Exabits per second).
Today, 25 years from the time of Ready Player One, and pre-Road Warrior savagery, the upper end of Fiber Optic networks is around 100 Gbps. It seems completely unreasonable, given the limitations of, ya know… the laws of physics and how light travels, that we’ll improve network bandwidth 100 million times what it is now. Not without running cables the size of tanker trucks, bristling with millions of fiber optic cables, into every single building. This is in addition to the Titanic sized cables that would be running from one city to the next connecting all of this. Those would make for a great target for the gangs of assless chapped villains in football pads roaming the wastelands.
All he had to do was scale those numbers down and they would still sound exotic to the layman and plausible to someone in the know.
How about he steals 10 Petabytes of data from IOI on a portable drive and it takes him 10 hours to upload it? That works out to 2.5 Tbps (Terabits per second). Sufficiently futuristic without being stupid.
What am I saying? The whole book is just an exercise in stupidity.